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en:misc:talk-saine-schwarcz [2012/12/13 16:41]
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en:misc:talk-saine-schwarcz [2013/02/08 16:00] (current)
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 {{anchor:​s2}} {{anchor:​s2}}
 This is a transcription((created with the permission of André Saine, the publisher of the said video)) of a [[http://​www.youtube.com/​watch?​v=T2uBBU4XT7Y|YouTube video]] recording a talk on homeopathy that took place on the premises of McGill University, November 27<​sup>​th</​sup>,​ 2012. The topic of the talk was //​Homeopathy:​ Mere Placebo or Great Medicine?//,​ the opponents were Dr. André Saine and Dr. Joe Schwarcz. This is a transcription((created with the permission of André Saine, the publisher of the said video)) of a [[http://​www.youtube.com/​watch?​v=T2uBBU4XT7Y|YouTube video]] recording a talk on homeopathy that took place on the premises of McGill University, November 27<​sup>​th</​sup>,​ 2012. The topic of the talk was //​Homeopathy:​ Mere Placebo or Great Medicine?//,​ the opponents were Dr. André Saine and Dr. Joe Schwarcz.
 +
 +After the debate, Drs. André Saine and Joe Schwarcz accepted to answer questions from the public by writing. Dr. Schwarcz also sent 18 questions to Dr. Saine. In return, Dr. Saine sent 27 questions to Dr. Schwarcz. These questions and answers were added to their corresponding pages:
 +
 +  * [[en:​misc:​talk-qa-schwarcz-saine|Questions from Dr. Joe Schwarcz to Dr. André Saine]]
 +  * [[en:​misc:​talk-qa-saine-schwarcz|Questions from Dr. André Saine to Dr. Joe Schwarcz]]
 +  * [[en:​misc:​talk-qa-public-schwarcz|Questions from public to Dr. Joe Schwarcz]]
  
 ===== Introduction ===== ===== Introduction =====
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 {{anchor:​s147}}And here on the left you can see tin at the 10<​sup>​-60</​sup>​ and on the right you can see tin at the 10<​sup>​-400</​sup>​. {{anchor:​s148}}Now,​ you will say, “ //Yeah, but that was published in a journal of homeopathy//​.” {{anchor:​s147}}And here on the left you can see tin at the 10<​sup>​-60</​sup>​ and on the right you can see tin at the 10<​sup>​-400</​sup>​. {{anchor:​s148}}Now,​ you will say, “ //Yeah, but that was published in a journal of homeopathy//​.”
  
-{{anchor:​s149}}The same team [[http://​www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/​pubmed/​23083226|published]] in the //Journal of Langmuir//, which is a very, very prestigious journal of chemistry -- actually, it’s one of the journals of the American Chemical Society, and they have a motto, which is: “//The most trusted, the most cited, and the most read journal.//​” And this team from the Indian Institute of Technology confirmed that they found particles even at these extreme super-Avogadro dilutions, and they found out a process.[(Chikramane PS, Kalita D, Suresh AK, Kane SG, Bellare JR. Why Extreme Dilutions Reach Non-zero Asymptotes: A Nanoparticulate Hypothesis Based on Froth Flotation. //​Langmuir.//​ 2012 Nov 13;​28(45):​15864-75. doi: 10.1021/​la303477s. Epub 2012 Nov 1.)]+{{anchor:​s149}}The same team [[http://​www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/​pubmed/​23083226|published]] in the journal of //​Langmuir//,​ which is a very, very prestigious journal of chemistry -- actually, it’s one of the journals of the American Chemical Society, and they have a motto, which is: “//The most trusted, the most cited, and the most read journal.//​” And this team from the Indian Institute of Technology confirmed that they found particles even at these extreme super-Avogadro dilutions, and they found out a process.[(nanostudy>​Chikramane PS, Kalita D, Suresh AK, Kane SG, Bellare JR. Why Extreme Dilutions Reach Non-zero Asymptotes: A Nanoparticulate Hypothesis Based on Froth Flotation. //​Langmuir.//​ 2012 Nov 13;​28(45):​15864-75. doi: 10.1021/​la303477s. Epub 2012 Nov 1.)]
  
 {{anchor:​s150}}I’ll show you: here is the process of trituration,​ and here is the process of dilution. {{anchor:​s151}}After three series of trituration,​ it goes into a solution, and then the succuss. {{anchor:​s152}}And then as this process progresses, there are nano-bubbles that accumulate in an asymptotic manner. {{anchor:​s153}}That means it never reaches zero. {{anchor:​s154}}So as you are diluting and succussing, the nano-bubbles actually multiply. {{anchor:​s150}}I’ll show you: here is the process of trituration,​ and here is the process of dilution. {{anchor:​s151}}After three series of trituration,​ it goes into a solution, and then the succuss. {{anchor:​s152}}And then as this process progresses, there are nano-bubbles that accumulate in an asymptotic manner. {{anchor:​s153}}That means it never reaches zero. {{anchor:​s154}}So as you are diluting and succussing, the nano-bubbles actually multiply.
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 {{anchor:​s156}}It is hard to understand how skeptics still maintain that all this research represents “//a plundering of science//​.” {{anchor:​s156}}It is hard to understand how skeptics still maintain that all this research represents “//a plundering of science//​.”
  
-{{anchor:​s157}}This statement is contrary to current scientific research, which supports the biological plausibility of UMPs. {{anchor:​s158}}[[www.iberhome.es/​pdf/​inveagua.pdf|In a 2005 paper]] in Material Research Innovation entitled “//The Structure of Liquid Water: Novel Insights From Materials Research; Potential Relevance to Homeopathy//​[(Roy R, Tiller WA, Bell I, Hoover MR. The structure of liquid water; novel insights from materials research; potential relevance for homeopathy. //Mater Res Innov.// 2005;​9:​98-103.)],​” we can read, “ //This paper definitively demolishes the objection against homeopathy//,​” and I will skip the rest of the quotes there.+{{anchor:​s157}}This statement is contrary to current scientific research, which supports the biological plausibility of UMPs. {{anchor:​s158}}[[http://www.iberhome.es/​pdf/​inveagua.pdf|In a 2005 paper]] in Material Research Innovation entitled “//The Structure of Liquid Water: Novel Insights From Materials Research; Potential Relevance to Homeopathy//​[(Roy R, Tiller WA, Bell I, Hoover MR. The structure of liquid water; novel insights from materials research; potential relevance for homeopathy. //Mater Res Innov.// 2005;​9:​98-103.)],​” we can read, “ //This paper definitively demolishes the objection against homeopathy//,​” and I will skip the rest of the quotes there.
  
 {{anchor:​s159}}In a summary review of the literature, “//On the Plausibility of Homeopathic ‘Similitude’//,​” [[http://​www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/​pubmed/​22506605|published in 2011]], the author who reviewed the literature concluded, “ //in conclusion, our work and that of many other researchers suggests that <wrap hi>​homeopathy is not only plausible, but constitutes one of the frontiers of medical science, and more specifically of complexity science, biophysics, and nanopharmacology</​wrap>​. {{anchor:​s160}}For these reasons the tenet according to which ‘homeopathy is based on principles that are incompatible with well-established science’ cannot be accepted and <wrap hi>​investigation of homeopathic treatments appears to be warranted and ethically justifiable</​wrap>//​.”[(Bellavite P. On the plausibility of homeopathic '​similitude'​. //​Bioethics.//​ 2012 Nov;​26(9):​506-7;​ discussion 508-12. doi: 10.1111/​j.1467-8519.2012.01947.x. Epub 2012 Apr 17.)] {{anchor:​s159}}In a summary review of the literature, “//On the Plausibility of Homeopathic ‘Similitude’//,​” [[http://​www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/​pubmed/​22506605|published in 2011]], the author who reviewed the literature concluded, “ //in conclusion, our work and that of many other researchers suggests that <wrap hi>​homeopathy is not only plausible, but constitutes one of the frontiers of medical science, and more specifically of complexity science, biophysics, and nanopharmacology</​wrap>​. {{anchor:​s160}}For these reasons the tenet according to which ‘homeopathy is based on principles that are incompatible with well-established science’ cannot be accepted and <wrap hi>​investigation of homeopathic treatments appears to be warranted and ethically justifiable</​wrap>//​.”[(Bellavite P. On the plausibility of homeopathic '​similitude'​. //​Bioethics.//​ 2012 Nov;​26(9):​506-7;​ discussion 508-12. doi: 10.1111/​j.1467-8519.2012.01947.x. Epub 2012 Apr 17.)]
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   * {{anchor:​s172}}“//​Inclusion criteria: Stepwise agitated dilutions <​10<​sup>​-23</​sup>;​ cells or molecules from human or animal//​.” ​   * {{anchor:​s172}}“//​Inclusion criteria: Stepwise agitated dilutions <​10<​sup>​-23</​sup>;​ cells or molecules from human or animal//​.” ​
-  * {{anchor:​s173}}“ //Results: From 75 publications,​ 67 experiments (1/3 of them replications) were evaluated. {{anchor:​s174}}Nearly 3/4 of them found a high potency effect. . . {{anchor:​s175}}Nearly 3/4 of all replications were positive// .” +  * {{anchor:​s173}}“ //Results: From 75 publications,​ 67 experiments (1/3 of them replications) were evaluated. {{anchor:​s174}}<wrap hi>Nearly 3/4 of them found a high potency effect</​wrap>​... {{anchor:​s175}}<wrap hi>Nearly 3/4 of all replications were positive</​wrap>​//​.” ​
   * {{anchor:​s176}}“//​Conclusions:​ Experiments with a high methodological standard . . . demonstrate an effect of high potencies//​.” ​   * {{anchor:​s176}}“//​Conclusions:​ Experiments with a high methodological standard . . . demonstrate an effect of high potencies//​.” ​
  
-{{anchor:​s177}}Let’s look at plant research now. {{anchor:​s178}}Here again we have a 2009 critical review of the literature on plant research in homeopathy:+{{anchor:​s177}}Let’s look at plant research now. {{anchor:​s178}}Here again we have a [[http://​www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/​pubmed/​19945678|2009 critical review]] of the literature on plant research in homeopathy:[(Betti L, Trebbi G, Majewsky V, Scherr C, Shah-Rossi D, Jäger T, Baumgartner S. Use of homeopathic preparations in phytopathological models and in field trials: a critical review. Department of Agri-Environmental Sciences and Technologies,​ University of Bologna, Italy. //​Homeopathy.//​ 2009 Oct;​98(4):​244-66. doi: 10.1016/​j.homp.2009.09.008.)]
  
   * {{anchor:​s179}}“ //The literature on the applications of homeopathy for controlling plant diseases in both plant pathological models and field trials was reviewed// .”    * {{anchor:​s179}}“ //The literature on the applications of homeopathy for controlling plant diseases in both plant pathological models and field trials was reviewed// .” 
-  * {{anchor:​s180}}“ //Results: A total of 44 publications on phytopathological models were identified: 19 papers with statistics ... in general, significant and reproducible effects with decimal and centesimal potencies were found, including dilution levels beyond the Avogadro’s number// .” +  * {{anchor:​s180}}“ //Results: A total of 44 publications on phytopathological models were identified: 19 papers with statistics... in general, ​<wrap hi>significant and reproducible effects with decimal and centesimal potencies were found, including dilution levels beyond the Avogadro’s number</​wrap>​//​.” ​
  
 {{anchor:​s181}}The next question that needs to be answered is whether homeopathy really works clinically. {{anchor:​s182}}That’s what we are here for, so let’s look at whether it works. {{anchor:​s183}}First,​ let’s look at veterinary research. {{anchor:​s184}}These are randomized controlled trials with positive evidence. {{anchor:​s185}}Here we have infertility in cattle, mastitis in cattle, infectious diseases in pigs, and so on and so on, and here we have clinical outcome studies with positive evidence in animals. {{anchor:​s186}}We have kennel-cough in dogs, epilepsy in dogs, Cushing’s syndrome, and so on. {{anchor:​s181}}The next question that needs to be answered is whether homeopathy really works clinically. {{anchor:​s182}}That’s what we are here for, so let’s look at whether it works. {{anchor:​s183}}First,​ let’s look at veterinary research. {{anchor:​s184}}These are randomized controlled trials with positive evidence. {{anchor:​s185}}Here we have infertility in cattle, mastitis in cattle, infectious diseases in pigs, and so on and so on, and here we have clinical outcome studies with positive evidence in animals. {{anchor:​s186}}We have kennel-cough in dogs, epilepsy in dogs, Cushing’s syndrome, and so on.
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 {{anchor:​s187}}Now let’s look at observational studies: {{anchor:​s187}}Now let’s look at observational studies:
  
-{{anchor:​s188}}Observational studies provide verifiable information that is complementary to the results of clinical trials, and here it is particularly helpful to evaluate real-life outcomes over many years. {{anchor:​s189}}First,​ this 2005 review paper entitled “//​Research on Homeopathy: State of the Art//,” in which it is stated, “//​Observational research of homeopathic practice documents consistently strong therapeutic effects and sustained satisfaction in patients//​.”+{{anchor:​s188}}Observational studies provide verifiable information that is complementary to the results of clinical trials, and here it is particularly helpful to evaluate real-life outcomes over many years. {{anchor:​s189}}First, ​[[http://​www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/​pubmed/​16296915|this 2005 review paper]] entitled “//​Research on Homeopathy: State of the Art//[(Walach H, Jonas WB, Ives J, van Wijk R, Weingärtner O. Research on homeopathy: state of the art. University College Northampton,​ School of Social Sciences, UK. J Altern Complement Med. 2005 Oct;​11(5):​813-29.)],” in which it is stated, “//​Observational research of homeopathic practice documents ​<wrap hi>consistently strong therapeutic effects and sustained satisfaction in patients</​wrap>​//.”
  
 {{anchor:​s190}}“//​Historically,​ homeopaths were among the first to introduce double-blinded experiments in human subjects//​.” {{anchor:​s190}}“//​Historically,​ homeopaths were among the first to introduce double-blinded experiments in human subjects//​.”
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 {{anchor:​s191}}Now let’s look at two large-scale perspective observational studies over many years: {{anchor:​s191}}Now let’s look at two large-scale perspective observational studies over many years:
  
-{{anchor:​s192}}The first one is out of the UK, in which the author reports, “ //This was an observational study of 6544 consecutive follow-up patients during a 6-year period. . . . {{anchor:​s193}}Results:​ Homeopathic intervention offered positive health changes to a substantial proportion (71%)// .”+{{anchor:​s192}}[[http://​www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/​pubmed/​16296912|The first one]] is out of the UK, in which the author reports, “ //This was an observational study of 6544 consecutive follow-up patients during a 6-year period. . . . {{anchor:​s193}}Results:​ Homeopathic intervention offered ​<wrap hi>positive health changes to a substantial proportion (71%)</​wrap>​//.”[(Spence DS, Thompson EA, Barron SJ. Homeopathic treatment for chronic disease: a 6-year, university-hospital outpatient observational study. United Bristol Healthcare, National Health Service Trust, Bristol, United Kingdom. //J Altern Complement Med.// 2005 Oct;​11(5):​793-8.)]
  
-{{anchor:​s194}}The second study I’m going to show comes from Germany and Switzerland. {{anchor:​s195}}It was published in 2008, and the authors report, “ //In a prospective,​ multicentre cohort study with 104 homeopathic primary care practices in Germany and Switzerland,​ data from all patients (age >1 year) consulting the physician for the first time were observed. ... {{anchor:​s196}}Results:​ A total of 3,709 patients were studied, 73% contributed data to the 8-year follow-up. ... {{anchor:​s197}}Disease severity decreased significantly (p < 0.001),” --// this is extraordinary:​ One chance in a thousand that it could have happened— “ //between baseline, 2 and 8 years. {{anchor:​s198}}Physical and mental quality of life scores also increased considerably... {{anchor:​s199}}Conclusion:​ Patients who seek homeopathic treatment are likely to improve significantly. {{anchor:​s200}}These effects last for as long as 8 years// .”+{{anchor:​s194}}[[http://​www.biomedcentral.com/​1471-2458/​8/​413|The second study]] I’m going to show comes from Germany and Switzerland. {{anchor:​s195}}It was published in 2008, and the authors report, “ //In a prospective,​ multicentre cohort study with 104 homeopathic primary care practices in Germany and Switzerland,​ data from all patients (age >1 year) consulting the physician for the first time were observed. ... {{anchor:​s196}}Results:​ A total of 3,709 patients were studied, 73% contributed data to the 8-year follow-up. ... {{anchor:​s197}}<wrap hi>Disease severity decreased significantly (p < 0.001)</​wrap>​,” --// this is extraordinary:​ One chance in a thousand that it could have happened— “ //between baseline, 2 and 8 years. {{anchor:​s198}}<wrap hi>Physical and mental quality of life scores also increased considerably</​wrap>​... {{anchor:​s199}}Conclusion: ​<wrap hi>Patients who seek homeopathic treatment are likely to improve significantly.</​wrap> ​{{anchor:​s200}}These effects last for as long as 8 years// .”[(Claudia M Witt, Rainer Lüdtke, Nils Mengler and Stefan N Willich; How healthy are chronically ill patients after eight years of homeopathic treatment? – Results from a long term observational study. BMC Public Health. December 2008, 8:413)]
  
 {{anchor:​s201}}Now let’s look at therapeutic trials: {{anchor:​s201}}Now let’s look at therapeutic trials:
  
-{{anchor:​s202}}There are all kinds of wonderful trials throughout the long history of homeopathy; however, I will focus on two RCTs (Randomized Control Trials). {{anchor:​s203}}For the first one we are going to look at, the outcome is very interesting because the outcome is life or death, so it’s a bit more dramatic. {{anchor:​s204}}This is a study on sepsis in an intensive care unit:+{{anchor:​s202}}There are all kinds of wonderful trials throughout the long history of homeopathy; however, I will focus on two RCTs (Randomized Control Trials). {{anchor:​s203}}For the first one we are going to look at, the outcome is very interesting because the outcome is life or death, so it’s a bit more dramatic. {{anchor:​s204}}This is a [[http://​www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/​pubmed/​15892486|study on sepsis]] in an intensive care unit:
  
-{{anchor:​s205}}“ //Mortality in patients with severe sepsis remains high despite the development of several therapeutic strategies. ... {{anchor:​s206}}The incidence of severe sepsis is between 70,000 to 300,000 patients in the United States each year. {{anchor:​s207}}The aim of this randomized, double-blind,​ placebo-controlled trial was to evaluate whether homeopathy is able to influence long-term outcome in critically ill patients suffering from severe sepsis. .. {{anchor:​s208}}Seventy patients with severe sepsis received homeopathic treatment or placebo. {{anchor:​s209}}Five globules in a potency of 200 C were given at 12 h interval during the stay at the intensive care unit. {{anchor:​s210}}Survival after 30 and 180 days was recorded. ... {{anchor:​s211}}Results:​ On day 180, survival was statistically significantly higher with verum homeopathy (75.8% vs. 50.0%, P=0.043). No adverse effects were observed// .”+{{anchor:​s205}}“ //Mortality in patients with severe sepsis remains high despite the development of several therapeutic strategies. ... {{anchor:​s206}}The incidence of severe sepsis is between 70,000 to 300,000 patients in the United States each year. {{anchor:​s207}}The aim of this randomized, double-blind,​ placebo-controlled trial was to evaluate whether homeopathy is able to influence long-term outcome in critically ill patients suffering from severe sepsis. .. {{anchor:​s208}}Seventy patients with severe sepsis received homeopathic treatment or placebo. {{anchor:​s209}}Five globules in a potency of 200 C were given at 12 h interval during the stay at the intensive care unit. {{anchor:​s210}}Survival after 30 and 180 days was recorded. ... {{anchor:​s211}}Results:​ On day 180, <wrap hi>survival was statistically significantly higher with verum homeopathy</​wrap> ​(75.8% vs. 50.0%, P=0.043). No adverse effects were observed//​.” ​[(sepsisstudy>​Frass M, Linkesch M, Banyai S, Resch G, Dielacher C, Löbl T, Endler C, Haidvogl M, Muchitsch I, Schuster E. Adjunctive homeopathic treatment in patients with severe sepsis: a randomized, double-blind,​ placebo-controlled trial in an intensive care unit. Ludwig Boltzmann Institute for Homeopathy, Graz, Austria. Homeopathy. 2005 Apr;​94(2):​75-80.)]
  
-{{anchor:​s212}}Here we have a skeptic from England, in the Guardian stating, “ //This RCT trial has been done, time and time again, with homeopathy ... you find, overall, that the people getting the placebo sugar pills do just as well as those getting the real, posh, expensive, technical, magical homeopathy pills// .”+{{anchor:​s212}}Here we have a skeptic from England, in the Guardian stating, “ //This RCT trial has been done, time and time again, with homeopathy ... you find, overall, that the people getting the placebo sugar pills do just as well as those getting the real, posh, expensive, technical, magical homeopathy pills//.”[(Ben Goldacre. A kind of Magic? //The Guardian.// November 16, 2007))]
  
-{{anchor:​s213}}Now,​ a valid question to ask Goldacre is whether he considers the other 26% extra in the sepsis placebo group as doing just as well as the group receiving homeopathy.+{{anchor:​s213}}Now,​ a valid question to ask Goldacre is whether he considers the other 26% extra[(sepsisstudy)] ​in the sepsis placebo group as doing just as well as the group receiving homeopathy.
  
-{{anchor:​s214}}Now,​ let’s look at a second ​RCt:+{{anchor:​s214}}Now,​ let’s look at a second ​RCT:
  
-{{anchor:​s215}}This one is of great interest as researchers were able to isolate the strength of homeopathic response from the clinical skill of the homeopaths. {{anchor:​s216}}It’s on hyperactivity in children:+{{anchor:​s215}}This one is of great interest as researchers were able to isolate the strength of homeopathic response from the clinical skill of the homeopaths. {{anchor:​s216}}It’s on [[http://​www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/​pubmed/​16047154|hyperactivity in children]]:
  
 {{anchor:​s217}}“ //An increasing number of parents turn to homeopathy for treatment of their hyperactive child. {{anchor:​s218}}Two publications,​ a randomised, partially blinded trial and a clinical observation study, conclude that homeopathy has positive effects in patients with ADHD. {{anchor:​s219}}The aim of the study was to obtain scientific evidence of the effectiveness of homeopathy in ADHD. {{anchor:​s220}}Method:​ Prior to the randomised, double blind, placebo controlled crossover study, they were treated with individually prescribed homeopathic medications//​ .” {{anchor:​s217}}“ //An increasing number of parents turn to homeopathy for treatment of their hyperactive child. {{anchor:​s218}}Two publications,​ a randomised, partially blinded trial and a clinical observation study, conclude that homeopathy has positive effects in patients with ADHD. {{anchor:​s219}}The aim of the study was to obtain scientific evidence of the effectiveness of homeopathy in ADHD. {{anchor:​s220}}Method:​ Prior to the randomised, double blind, placebo controlled crossover study, they were treated with individually prescribed homeopathic medications//​ .”
  
-{{anchor:​s221}}So they found out who responded to the remedy. “ //62 of 83 patients [or 75% accuracy in prescribing],​ who achieved an improvement of 50% in the Conner’s’ Global Index (CGI), participated in the trial. ... {{anchor:​s222}}Results:​ At entry to the crossover trial, cognitive performance such as visual global perception, impulsivity and divided attention had improved significantly under open label treatment ​(with a P value of ) (P<0.0001).// ”+{{anchor:​s221}}So they found out who responded to the remedy. “ //62 of 83 patients [or 75% accuracy in prescribing],​ who achieved an improvement of 50% in the Conner’s’ Global Index (CGI), participated in the trial. ... {{anchor:​s222}}Results:​ At entry to the crossover trial, cognitive performance such as visual global perception, impulsivity and divided attention had <wrap hi>improved significantly under open label treatment with a P value of  P<0.0001</​wrap>​.//”[(Frei H, Everts R, von Ammon K, Kaufmann F, Walther D, Hsu-Schmitz SF, Collenberg M, Fuhrer K, Hassink R, Steinlin M, Thurneysen A. Homeopathic treatment of children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder: a randomised, double blind, placebo controlled crossover trial. Swiss Association of Homeopathic Physicians SAHP, Lucerne, Switzerland. //Eur J Pediatr.// 2005 Dec;​164(12):​758-67. Epub 2005 Jul 27.)]
  
-{{anchor:​s223}}Extraordinary. {{anchor:​s224}}One chance in 10,000. {{anchor:​s225}}That is because they isolated - they removed from the equation - the prescriber’s skill, so you are just looking at the reaction to the homeopathic remedy.+{{anchor:​s223}}Extraordinary. {{anchor:​s224}}One chance in 10,000. {{anchor:​s225}}That is because they isolated ​-- they removed from the equation ​-- the prescriber’s skill, so you are just looking at the reaction to the homeopathic remedy.
  
-{{anchor:​s226}}“ //The trial suggests scientific evidence of the long-term effectiveness of homeopathy in the treatment of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, particularly in the areas of behavioural and cognitive functions// .”+{{anchor:​s226}}“ //The trial suggests ​<wrap hi>scientific evidence of the long-term effectiveness of homeopathy</​wrap> ​in the treatment of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, particularly in the areas of behavioural and cognitive functions// .”
  
-{{anchor:​s227}}I have a couple of minutes to start to look at systemic activity ​and meta-analysis,​ and this is where skeptics say they rely much on the meta-analysis. {{anchor:​s228}}In 2004, medical historian Michael Dean published the first systematic review of all clinical trials of homeopathy published in the medical literature from 1821 until 1998, and he found and analyzed 45 prospective trials and 205 controlled trials. {{anchor:​s229}}Some of the main findings of this extensive search analysis are:+{{anchor:​s227}}I have a couple of minutes to start to look at systematic reviews ​and meta-analysis,​ and this is where skeptics say they rely much on the meta-analysis. {{anchor:​s228}}In 2004, medical historian Michael Dean published the first systematic review of all clinical trials of homeopathy published in the medical literature from 1821 until 1998, and he found and analyzed 45 prospective trials and 205 controlled trials.[(Michael Emmans Dean -- The Trials of Homeopathy.)] ​{{anchor:​s229}}Some of the main findings of this extensive search analysis are:
  
   * {{anchor:​s230}}“//​Homeopathy has a long history of scientifically conducted trials//​.” ​   * {{anchor:​s230}}“//​Homeopathy has a long history of scientifically conducted trials//​.” ​
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 {{anchor:​s637}}And to compare Randi and Marketplace with researchers from renowned centers -- it is not equal. {{anchor:​s638}}There are serious scientists out there doing serious research, and the work of Benveniste was replicated by several labs since, and it was published a long time ago -- over 10 years ago. {{anchor:​s637}}And to compare Randi and Marketplace with researchers from renowned centers -- it is not equal. {{anchor:​s638}}There are serious scientists out there doing serious research, and the work of Benveniste was replicated by several labs since, and it was published a long time ago -- over 10 years ago.
  
-{{anchor:​s639}}In terms of history, Joe, you don’t know your history. {{anchor:​s640}}The process of serial dilution and succussion was not an invention of Hahnemann. {{anchor:​s641}}It has been known at least since Paracelsus. {{anchor:​s642}}And Hahnemann used those at least till 1822. {{anchor:​s643}}In other words, he went to the process of serial dilution slowly, slowly over the years. {{anchor:​s644}}It was only around 1812 that he went beyond Avogadro’s number.+{{anchor:​s639}}In terms of history, Joe, you don’t know your history. {{anchor:​s640}}The process of serial dilution and succussion was not an invention of Hahnemann. {{anchor:​s641}}It has been known at least since Paracelsus. {{anchor:​s642}}And Hahnemann used crude doses at least till 1822. {{anchor:​s643}}In other words, he went to the process of serial dilution slowly, slowly over the years. {{anchor:​s644}}It was only around 1812 that he went beyond Avogadro’s number.
  
-{{anchor:​s645}}He took many years. {{anchor:​s646}}It was not a flash of genius; it was a process of experimentation. {{anchor:​s647}}And as he experimented,​ he noticed greater response from the patients, and he said, //​“Let’s do it further//​.{{anchor:​s648}}” Greater response. {{anchor:​s649}}This is confirmed now from the work on Nano-bubbles, where there is an augmentation of the effect.+{{anchor:​s645}}He took many years. {{anchor:​s646}}It was not a flash of genius; it was a process of experimentation. {{anchor:​s647}}And as he experimented,​ he noticed greater response from the patients, and he said, //​“Let’s do it further//​.{{anchor:​s648}}” Greater response. {{anchor:​s649}}This is confirmed now from the work on nanobubbles, where there is an augmentation of the effect.[(nanostudy)]
  
-{{anchor:​s650}}In terms of the placebo effect, Joe, I think you are in 1955 with Beaker’s study of the powerful placebo effect. {{anchor:​s651}}This was reviewed many, many times since 1955, and the Cochran calibration ​came out, I think, this year with a review of all the trials where they compare placebo with effective treatment and the no treatment arm. {{anchor:​s652}}And when they used this, when they looked at about 200 trials with the no treatment arm, and they found out that the placebo effect in clinical trials is really negligible.+{{anchor:​s650}}In terms of the placebo effect, Joe, I think you are in 1955 with Beaker’s study of the powerful placebo effect. {{anchor:​s651}}This was reviewed many, many times since 1955, and the Cochrane collaboration ​came out, I think, this year with a review of all the trials where they compare placebo with effective treatment and the no-treatment arm. {{anchor:​s652}}And when they used this, when they looked at about 200 trials with the no-treatment arm, and they found out that the placebo effect in clinical trials is really negligible.
  
-{{anchor:​s653}}I was telling you that I am going to present you the findings of the most comprehensive review of homeopathy. {{anchor:​s654}}This was the one that I referred to before, and Joe also referred to -- also called the Swiss study.+{{anchor:​s653}}I was telling you that I am going to present you the findings of the most comprehensive review of homeopathy. {{anchor:​s654}}This was the one that I referred to before, and Joe also referred to -- also called the [[http://​www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/​pubmed/​16883077|Swiss study]].[(Bornhöft G, Wolf U, von Ammon K, Righetti M, Maxion-Bergemann S, Baumgartner S, Thurneysen AE, Matthiessen PF. Effectiveness,​ safety and cost-effectiveness of homeopathy in general practice -- summarized health technology assessment. Chair in Medical Theory and Complementary Medicine, University of Witten/​Herdecke,​ Germany. //Forsch Komplementmed.//​ 2006;13 Suppl 2:19-29. Epub 2006 Jun 26.)]
  
 {{anchor:​s655}}“//​This is a Health Technology Assessment conducted over a period of seven years by scientists for the Swiss government//​.{{anchor:​s656}}” So these were independent scientists. {{anchor:​s657}}There were eight scientists, and three of them were also practicing homeopathy, but the editors were a neurosurgeon and psychiatrist -- __nothing to do with homeopathy__. {{anchor:​s658}}They were scientists specialized to analyze trials -- __nothing to do with homeopathy__. {{anchor:​s655}}“//​This is a Health Technology Assessment conducted over a period of seven years by scientists for the Swiss government//​.{{anchor:​s656}}” So these were independent scientists. {{anchor:​s657}}There were eight scientists, and three of them were also practicing homeopathy, but the editors were a neurosurgeon and psychiatrist -- __nothing to do with homeopathy__. {{anchor:​s658}}They were scientists specialized to analyze trials -- __nothing to do with homeopathy__.
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   * {{anchor:​s664}}“//​A total of 22 reviews were analysed. {{anchor:​s665}}The synopsis of the study results found at least a// //trend in favour of homeopathy in 20 of 22 reviews//​.” ​   * {{anchor:​s664}}“//​A total of 22 reviews were analysed. {{anchor:​s665}}The synopsis of the study results found at least a// //trend in favour of homeopathy in 20 of 22 reviews//​.” ​
   * {{anchor:​s666}}“//​A follow-up study with// //very high external validity////,​ i.e. the investigation of the effectiveness of individualized classical homeopathy, also provided// //strong evidence of effectiveness//​ //​.”// ​   * {{anchor:​s666}}“//​A follow-up study with// //very high external validity////,​ i.e. the investigation of the effectiveness of individualized classical homeopathy, also provided// //strong evidence of effectiveness//​ //​.”// ​
-  * {{anchor:​s667}}“//​In contrast to this subsidiary result [Shang et al, Lancet, 2005][(shangpaper)],​ this much more comprehensive and differentiated HTA showed that// //​homeopathy was effective, safe and cost-efficient////​.”//​  +  * {{anchor:​s667}}“//​In contrast to this subsidiary result [Shang et al, Lancet, 2005][(shangpaper)],​ this much more comprehensive and differentiated HTA showed that// //<wrap hi>homeopathy was effective, safe and cost-efficient</​wrap>​////.”//  
-  * {{anchor:​s668}}“//​It re-evaluated Shang’s quantitative analysis, taking into consideration criteria of external and internal validity and// //found a truly remarkable result in favor of homeopathy////​.”// ​+  * {{anchor:​s668}}“//​It re-evaluated Shang’s quantitative analysis, taking into consideration criteria of external and internal validity and// //<wrap hi>found a truly remarkable result in favor of homeopathy</​wrap>​////​.”// ​
  
-{{anchor:​s669}}We have to remember, six of the trials were imitation.+{{anchor:​s669}}We have to remember, six of the trials were imitation ​[of homeopathy].
  
   * {{anchor:​s670}}“//​Final conclusion: the ‘real-world effectiveness’ (effectiveness likely, questionable or unlikely)’,​ homeopathy falls within the category: ‘// //​effectiveness likely’////​.”// ​   * {{anchor:​s670}}“//​Final conclusion: the ‘real-world effectiveness’ (effectiveness likely, questionable or unlikely)’,​ homeopathy falls within the category: ‘// //​effectiveness likely’////​.”// ​
-  * //​{{anchor:​s671}}Safety:​ Medical homeopathy in Switzerland has// //few side effects if professionally executed// //, and the use of high potencies is free from toxic effects.”// ​+  * //​{{anchor:​s671}}Safety:​ Medical homeopathy in Switzerland has// //<wrap hi>few side effects if professionally executed</​wrap>​// //, and the use of high potencies is free from toxic effects.”// ​
  
 {{anchor:​s672}}What more do you want? {{anchor:​s673}}Well,​ economy perhaps. {{anchor:​s672}}What more do you want? {{anchor:​s673}}Well,​ economy perhaps.
  
-  * {{anchor:​s674}}“//​With pharmaceutical costs being what they are, the use of// //​homeopathy has the potential to lower pharmaceutical spending.//​”  +  * {{anchor:​s674}}“//​With pharmaceutical costs being what they are, the use of// //<wrap hi>homeopathy has the potential to lower pharmaceutical spending</​wrap>​.//”  
-  * {{anchor:​s675}}“//​In summary, it can be said that there// //is sufficient evidence for the preclinical effectiveness and the clinical efficacy of homeopathy//​ //and for its// //safety and economy// //compared with conventional treatment//​.” ​+  * {{anchor:​s675}}“//​In summary, it can be said that there// //is <wrap hi>sufficient evidence for the preclinical effectiveness and the clinical efficacy of homeopathy</​wrap>​// //and for its// //<wrap hi>safety and economy</​wrap>​// //compared with conventional treatment//​.” ​
   * {{anchor:​s676}}“ //In January 2011 the Swiss Federal Department of Home Affairs decided that homeopathy will be included in the Swiss statutory health insurance and reimbursed for a minimum of 6 years.”// ​   * {{anchor:​s676}}“ //In January 2011 the Swiss Federal Department of Home Affairs decided that homeopathy will be included in the Swiss statutory health insurance and reimbursed for a minimum of 6 years.”// ​
  
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 {{anchor:​s682}}Now,​ the main finding of this comprehensive review of the literature, which included all the epidemics that homeopathy was involved in all over the world, from the earliest one in 1796, which was scarlet fever, until now with leptospirosis in Cuba. {{anchor:​s682}}Now,​ the main finding of this comprehensive review of the literature, which included all the epidemics that homeopathy was involved in all over the world, from the earliest one in 1796, which was scarlet fever, until now with leptospirosis in Cuba.
  
-{{anchor:​s683}}The main findings were: “//​Results obtained by homeopathy during epidemics// //reveal a very important and clear constancy: a very low mortality rate.// //​{{anchor:​s684}}This constancy remains, regardless of the physician, time, place or type of epidemical disease, including diseases carrying a very high mortality rate, such as cholera, smallpox, diphtheria, typhoid fever// , //yellow fever and pneumonia//​.”+{{anchor:​s683}}The main findings were: “//​Results obtained by homeopathy during epidemics// //<wrap hi>reveal a very important and clear constancy: a very low mortality rate</​wrap>​.// //​{{anchor:​s684}}This constancy remains, regardless of the physician, time, place or type of epidemical disease, including diseases carrying a very high mortality rate, such as cholera, smallpox, diphtheria, typhoid fever// , //yellow fever and pneumonia//​.”
  
-{{anchor:​s685}}I’ll give you an example. {{anchor:​s686}}In 1849, there was a major epidemic of cholera all over the world, but we’re going to focus only on Cincinnati. {{anchor:​s687}}Pulte and Erhmann treated 2600 cases with only 35 deaths, or a mortality rate of 1.3%. {{anchor:​s688}}The mortality rate for cholera in the 19th century was 50%, regardless of the physician, the place, the country or whether the patient was treated. {{anchor:​s689}}In Asia, in Egypt, in Tunisia, in Turkey, they didn’t have treatment, and the mortality, was around 50%. {{anchor:​s690}}Regardless of the treatment, the mortality was 50%. {{anchor:​s691}}And “//​despite having 60-70 cases that were in a deep state of collapse// ,” (Pulte and Ehrmann only had a mortality rate of 1.32%).+{{anchor:​s685}}I’ll give you an example. {{anchor:​s686}}In 1849, there was a major epidemic of cholera all over the world, but we’re going to focus only on Cincinnati. {{anchor:​s687}}Pulte and Erhmann treated 2600 cases with only 35 deaths, or a mortality rate of 1.3%. {{anchor:​s688}}The mortality rate for cholera in the 19th century was 50%, regardless of the physician, the place, the country or whether the patient was treated. {{anchor:​s689}}In Asia, in Egypt, in Tunisia, in Turkey, they didn’t have treatment, and the mortality, was around 50%. {{anchor:​s690}}Regardless of the treatment, the mortality was 50%. {{anchor:​s691}}And “//​despite having 60-70 cases that were in a deep state of collapse// ,” (<wrap hi>Pulte and Ehrmann only had a mortality rate of 1.32%</​wrap>​).
  
-{{anchor:​s692}}Now,​ there was a skeptic that said that they cheated. {{anchor:​s693}}So there was a commission that was instigated, and the commission was chaired by Alfonso ​Taft, who became Secretary of War eventually under Grant, and his son became President of the United States, so he was a reputable person, and the commission’s outcome was that what the homeopaths had reported was exactly true to the point, in every single case.+{{anchor:​s692}}Now,​ there was a skeptic that said that they cheated. {{anchor:​s693}}So there was a commission that was instigated, and the commission was chaired by Alphonso ​Taft, who became Secretary of War eventually under Grant, and his son became President of the United States, so he was a reputable person, and the commission’s outcome was that what the homeopaths had reported was exactly true to the point, in every single case.
  
 {{anchor:​s694}}Now,​ I’m going to look at a second disease, if I have one minute: pneumonia. {{anchor:​s695}}Osler reported that the mortality of pneumonia since around 1850s has been steady at 30%; even himself at John Hopkins had 30%. {{anchor:​s696}}Homeopaths will obtain results with less than 2%, and usually more like 1%. {{anchor:​s697}}It’s remarkable when we consider that 1 out of 25 Canadians dies of pneumonia now, when we could lower the mortality dramatically just by using those little pills that Joe is talking about, those good placebos. {{anchor:​s694}}Now,​ I’m going to look at a second disease, if I have one minute: pneumonia. {{anchor:​s695}}Osler reported that the mortality of pneumonia since around 1850s has been steady at 30%; even himself at John Hopkins had 30%. {{anchor:​s696}}Homeopaths will obtain results with less than 2%, and usually more like 1%. {{anchor:​s697}}It’s remarkable when we consider that 1 out of 25 Canadians dies of pneumonia now, when we could lower the mortality dramatically just by using those little pills that Joe is talking about, those good placebos.
  
-{{anchor:​s698}}I have been in practice for 30 years. {{anchor:​s699}}I have seen the worst cases of patients with acute and chronic disease, and I can testify to you that there is nothing in the history of medicine that I have studied more extensively. {{anchor:​s700}}I have also written a thesis on the placebo effect in homeopathy, so I am very aware of the placebo effect, but there is nothing in the history of medicine that can come close to homeopathy. {{anchor:​s701}}This is the future of medicine. {{anchor:​s702}}If you want to move forward, move towards homeopathy. {{anchor:​s703}}If you are a scientist in basic science, move toward the study of nanoparticles and so on - it’s the future! {{anchor:​s704}}We’re not looking behind now! {{anchor:​s705}}Science is moving forward, Hahnemann was a precursor of nanotechnology,​ and I have to stop here.+{{anchor:​s698}}I have been in practice for 30 years. {{anchor:​s699}}I have seen the worst cases of patients with acute and chronic disease, and I can testify to you that there is nothing in the history of medicine that I have studied more extensively. {{anchor:​s700}}I have also written a thesis on the placebo effect in homeopathy, so I am very aware of the placebo effect, but <wrap hi>there is nothing in the history of medicine that can come close to homeopathy</​wrap>​. {{anchor:​s701}}This is the future of medicine. {{anchor:​s702}}If you want to move forward, move towards homeopathy. {{anchor:​s703}}If you are a scientist in basic science, move toward the study of nanoparticles and so on -- it’s the future! {{anchor:​s704}}We’re not looking behind now! {{anchor:​s705}}Science is moving forward, Hahnemann was a precursor of nanotechnology,​ and I have to stop here.
  
 {{anchor:​s706}}(APPLAUSE) {{anchor:​s706}}(APPLAUSE)
en/misc/talk-saine-schwarcz.1355416910.txt.gz · Last modified: 2012/12/13 16:41 by legatum